PolTrack Series: IER's Policy Analysis Notes

“PolTrack Vol. 8 - Post-Election Analysis”

It’s mostly the economy

In our PolTrack issue Vol.6 (Volume 6: “Elections 2019: Assessing the Economic Down-Cycle”), we had sought to answer the question of who will ride the economic down cycle. Based on a comparative analysis of several economic markers in the lead up to previous elections, we had predicted that the worsening economic conditions, felt deeply across the country according to our August and December 2018 nationwide polls, could provide the opposition parties with an opportunity to rally voters around their candidates in the March 31st Local Elections. 

Election results, albeit contested, indicate that the opposition has indeed managed to channel popular dissent caused by the impact of economic issues on the standard of living of an average citizen, to support for its metropolitan mayor candidates in cities that constitute the heart of Turkish economy. If the current recount procedure does not alter the unofficial results declared by the President of the Supreme Election Council , the opposition will now have control of cities that taken together around 65% of Turkey’s GDP, including the country’s top three cities, Istanbul, Ankara and İzmir. In light of the new political landscape and outlook that emerged from the ballot box, we considered it to be a good time to evaluate the validity of our prediction. To do so, we have analysed public opinion survey results from Istanbul, Ankara, Adana and Mersin – four metropolitan municipalities whose electorate brought to power candidates from CHP after over 20 years of Ak Party or MHP rule.

What is PolTrack?

PolTrack Series (Political Analysis Notes) aims to interpret Turkish public opinion on the basis of quantitative data compiled from Istanbul Economics Research’s monthly public opinion survey. The notes are prepared by the analyst team of Istanbul Economics Research, composed of analysts and academics. 

For more detailed results and analysis, please contact our team at info@researchistanbul.com.

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